One in eight venues report a fall in trade

A new report links a fall in trade at British hospitality venues to the increasing use of weight-loss drugs. The research was published on 14 September. It identifies a fresh pressure point for business. One in eight is affected.

The central claim is that one venue in every eight has seen a noticeable downturn in the number of its customers, a drop that owners attribute directly to the boom in appetite suppressants. These businesses are pubs. They are also restaurants and bars. They are all reporting fewer people coming through their doors, a fundamental problem for any hospitality operation which relies on consistent footfall for its survival. One report, from Sky News, specified that venues in Scotland were said to be taking a particular hit as a result of the growing use of these drugs. The problem appears widespread. It is also new.

This is not a challenge the sector had anticipated. It arrives at an exceptionally difficult time for the industry. Businesses are already managing a series of severe economic challenges, with an Evening Standard report noting that rising costs and decreasing disposable income are among the primary factors impacting hospitality. For years, owners have had to contend with soaring energy bills, the increasing price of food supplies, and the fact that their customers simply have less money to spend on eating or drinking out. The arrival of appetite suppressing drugs on a mass scale introduces another complex factor for owners and managers to navigate, one that originates outside the economic sphere entirely.

The core finding is that a medical trend is now having a direct and measurable commercial impact on high street businesses. It is a new headwind. For a sector still attempting to find its footing after years of profound disruption, the emergence of an entirely novel reason for potential customers to spend less, or stay away completely, is a serious development. The logic presented in the reports is simple. People prescribed these drugs have a reduced appetite. This directly translates to lower spending on food and drink. One in eight venues now says it can see this effect showing up on its books. They see it in their weekly takings.

The drugs work by suppressing appetite

The medicines behind this shift are a class of drugs known as GLP-1 receptor agonists. They work on appetite. The most prominent is semaglutide, which is sold under the brand names Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for weight management. Another is liraglutide, marketed as Saxenda. These drugs are available via the NHS, but only for patients who meet a strict set of criteria relating to their body mass index and at least one weight related health condition. They are also widely available through private prescription from a growing number of online pharmacies and specialist clinics, creating a large, self funding market for their use. It is a new market. It is growing fast.

Their function is biological. It is also direct. The drugs mimic a hormone called glucagon like peptide 1, which the gut naturally releases after a person has eaten a meal. This chemical tells the brain that the body is satisfied and no longer needs food, effectively creating a feeling of fullness. It also slows down the process of gastric emptying, meaning food stays in the stomach for longer and prolongs the sensation of being full for hours. The user's appetite is suppressed. They feel less hungry. For many, the constant internal conversation about the next meal simply stops, fundamentally altering their relationship with food.

This has consequences. They go beyond just eating smaller portions. Some evidence suggests the drugs also affect the brain’s reward centres, reducing the appeal of high fat foods and, critically for pubs, alcohol. The desire for a pint of beer or a glass of wine can diminish. A craving for a packet of crisps or a bowl of chips may disappear entirely. This is not just about feeling full. It is about a change in what a person wants to consume. The drugs reshape desire.

This translates directly into lost revenue for hospitality venues. A customer using these drugs is far less likely to order a starter, a main course and a dessert. They might just order a main. Or they might share one. They may decide against ordering side dishes or having a second drink, decisions that have a significant cumulative impact on a venue's final takings. It means lower spend per head. That is the commercial effect. For a publican or restaurant owner, a table of four people who might have spent £120 may now spend only £70.

Their use is expected to grow significantly

The numbers are large. They will get larger. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, the body that approves treatments for the National Health Service, gave its backing to semaglutide for weight management in March 2023, making it available to hundreds of thousands of people. Its guidance restricted the drug to adults with a body mass index over 30 and at least one weight related health condition. NICE projected that almost 750,000 people in England could be eligible for the treatment. That is a huge cohort. It is a new pharmaceutical intervention on a massive scale.

Actual prescription data shows a steep climb. The drugs are in demand. In December 2023, doctors in England prescribed more than 196,000 items of these GLP 1 analogue drugs, a figure that has tripled in little over a year and demonstrates enormous patient appetite. This is not the ceiling. Current NHS availability is largely limited to specialist weight management services based in hospitals, creating a bottleneck that restricts access for many who are eligible. That is set to change. A £40 million government pilot scheme launched in June 2023 is now exploring how to expand access beyond those specialist clinics, potentially making the drugs available directly from general practitioners.

That would change everything. GPs could become the main prescribers. If the pilot is successful, it would transform a specialist treatment into a primary care tool, vastly increasing the number of people who could be offered it. The NHS is only one part of this story. A parallel, and far less restricted, market operates through private clinics and online pharmacies, where anyone who can afford the monthly cost of between £150 and £300 can gain a prescription with a simple online consultation. This private route bypasses NHS waiting lists and its stricter eligibility criteria. It is accessible. It is fast. The combination of a structured NHS rollout and a booming private market creates the conditions for exponential growth in the number of users across the United Kingdom. Millions could be using them within a few years.

It is another blow for a struggling sector

This is not happening in a vacuum. The rise of appetite suppressants adds a new and unwelcome complication for an industry already under immense pressure. Hospitality was fragile before this. A report in the Evening Standard identifies a familiar collection of difficulties which have weakened pubs, bars and restaurants over several years. The arrival of weight loss drugs is an accelerant. It is not the sole cause of the sector's problems.

Costs are a constant struggle. Businesses are still absorbing the shock of earlier energy price rises, with gas and electricity bills remaining a significant operational expense for venues running commercial kitchens or heating large, old buildings. Wholesale food prices have climbed steeply, squeezing the profit margins on every plate served. Staff are scarce. A persistent labour shortage across the sector has forced employers to increase wages to attract and retain kitchen and front of house teams, a direct hit to the bottom line that cannot always be passed on to the customer. Each of these factors has worn down the financial resilience of businesses.

At the same time, customers have less money to spend. Decreasing disposable income means households are making difficult decisions about their budgets. A meal out is an easy saving. A few pints at the local is a discretionary purchase that many are forgoing as they prioritise essential spending. This has resulted in a slow, grinding reduction in footfall for many venues long before the impact of these new drugs was ever considered. It is a demand problem. It has been for a while.

The new class of drugs lands directly on this fault line. They suppress appetite, which is the core driver of spending in these venues, hitting a sector already weakened by high costs on one side and falling consumer demand on the other. It is another squeeze on revenue. For businesses operating on the slimmest of margins, where survival depends on maximising the spending of every customer who walks through the door, a medical trend that encourages people to consume less is a serious challenge. It is another blow.

The impact will not be felt evenly

The impact will not be felt evenly. Some businesses will suffer more than others. The initial report from Sky News specifically highlighted pubs and restaurants in Scotland, suggesting a regional dimension to the problem from the very beginning. It is unclear if this is due to higher prescription rates north of the border, a different mix of hospitality venues, or the specific sample group chosen for the study. The effect is localised. At least for now. Other regional variations are probable, with pressure likely to concentrate in areas where uptake of the drugs is highest.

A venue’s business model is the critical factor. It dictates vulnerability. A traditional, wet led pub that generates the vast majority of its income from selling alcoholic drinks is dangerously exposed to any trend that reduces alcohol consumption. Its entire financial structure depends on people wanting beer, wine and spirits. For these businesses, the drugs are a direct threat. This is not the case for a fine dining restaurant where the focus is a tasting menu and the food itself is the main reason for the visit. Here, alcohol is a profitable extra, not the core product, and a customer choosing sparkling water over a wine pairing does not dismantle the entire proposition. The risk is different.

Location matters, too. Consider the contrast between a sprawling city centre bar and a small village local. The city venue relies on high volume and a constant churn of new faces, making it less susceptible to the changing habits of a few individuals. Its customer pool is vast. The rural pub, however, may depend heavily on a small group of regulars whose predictable spending forms the bedrock of its weekly revenue. If just two or three of those regulars start a course of appetite suppressants and cut their visits from three nights a week to one, or switch from pints to a single soft drink, the effect on the pub's bottom line is immediate and significant. The loss is felt.

The greatest risk is found where these vulnerabilities intersect. The most precarious position is that of a drinks focused pub in a small community located within a region seeing a rapid increase in weight loss drug prescriptions. That business faces a combination of pressures that a food led restaurant in a major metropolitan area simply does not. One model sells volume and appetite. The other sells an experience. For a sector already weakened, the precise mix of what a venue sells, where it is located, and who its customers are will ultimately determine its fate.

Venues will have to adapt to survive

Industry leaders say venues must adapt to survive. That adaptation will be painful. It means rethinking the entire customer offer, from the food on the plate to the reason people walk through the door in the first place. Menus may need to shrink. Some pubs are considering smaller portion sizes or introducing more dishes that are not centred on high fat content. This is a direct response to customers with suppressed appetites. They still want to socialise. They just eat less. The challenge is to maintain profitability on a lower average spend per head, which requires a difficult recalibration of costs, pricing and service.

The drinks menu matters more. The shift away from alcohol is a powerful, long term trend which the new weight loss drugs will only accelerate. The market for non alcoholic drinks grows fast. Research from IWSR Drinks Market Analysis projects the sector in the United Kingdom will expand by a compound annual growth rate of seven per cent between 2022 and 2026. Forward thinking venues are already moving beyond a dusty bottle of Becks Blue at the back of the fridge. They are building extensive non alcoholic cocktail lists and stocking multiple craft beers from a new generation of producers. The success of products like Guinness 0.0 shows a public appetite exists. The pub that captures this market has a future. The one that ignores it does not.

Survival will also mean selling something other than food and drink. It means selling an experience. The pub as a community hub is a powerful idea. It is also a viable business model. This could involve hosting regular quiz nights, live music and comedy events to draw people in for reasons unrelated to hunger or thirst. This creates a destination. In this model, the venue becomes the main attraction, with food and drink as secondary components of the evening out. The profit comes from the ticket price for the comedy night, not just the two pints someone drinks while watching it.

This strategy is not new. It is an argument industry bodies have been making for years. Kate Nicholls, the chief executive of UKHospitality, has repeatedly spoken about the need for businesses to innovate to cope with pressures from rising energy bills and staff shortages. The rise of appetite suppressants is simply another powerful factor forcing the change. It is an accelerant. For venues that were already struggling, it may prove to be the final pressure they cannot withstand. For others, it is a clear signal that the old ways of doing business are over. The future belongs to those who adapt. They have no choice.

Sources. Sky News Business: Pubs and restaurants 'losing business because of boom in weight-loss drugs'. Independent UK: Pubs and restaurants say they are losing business due to weight-loss drugs. Evening Standard: Pubs and restaurants losing business because of weight-loss drugs, report says.

Analysis. Drafted with AI assistance from the sources listed above and reviewed by an editor before publication. Jnews links to the organisations it writes about.